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The population in the German federal state of Mecklenburg—West Pomerania is growing older. A resulting rise in age-related diseases will likely lead to a greater need for medical care, even though the population as a whole is declining. The predicted number of patients affected by these diseases varies from one district to another because of local differences in demographic trends. Case numbers were forecasted on the basis of representative data on the morbidity from chronic diseases, which were derived from the Study of Health in Pomerania SHIP , the conjoint cancer registry of the East German federal states GKR , and a study on dementia morbidity.
These data were combined with demographic prognoses for Mecklenburg—West Pomerania and its rural and urban districts up to the year The predicted changes in case numbers vary widely from one district to another. All of the German federal states located in the former East Germany are likely to experience similar developments to those predicted for Mecklenburg—West Pomerania, as will many rural areas of the former West Germany, in which a demographic transition is already evident.
Because of the predicted rise in the number of patients, new health care concepts will have to be rapidly developed, implemented, and evaluated in order to ensure that comprehensive medical care will be delivered where it is needed. Demographic development in Mecklenburg—West Pomerania is marked by low birth rates, emigration, and increased life expectancy. As a result, the population is both aging and decreasing 1 — 3. Within a period of 20 years, the age structure in this federal state has changed from being the youngest to one of the oldest in Germany.
The aging of the population is associated with increases in morbidity 4 , 5 and the need for medical and nursing care 6 — 8. Although these changes are essential determinants for planning medical care capacities, they have not yet been adequately considered.
Thus, the planning of the number of practicing physicians is based on population figures and not on the numbers of cases or patients 9. Moreover, there are geographical differences in demographic development, so that the changes in patient numbers should be examined separately for each region. However, this has never been pursued systematically, for example, in planning for regional hospitals, which determines the total number of beds required in the federal state and then distributes them over the regional hospitals.